In view of the limitations of data and the absolute position of energy carbon dioxide in total carbon dioxide emissions, this article only studies carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in China. Starting from the study of the influencing factors of China’s energy carbon dioxide changes, the reasons for the differences in energy carbon dioxide emissions in various regions are explored, and the carbon emission reduction responsibilities of various regions are analyzed from the perspective of carbon transfer. On the basis of these studies, the regional allocation of China’s total energy carbon dioxide control target is made from the perspective of final demand.
(1) Using the carbon emission factor allocation analysis method to decompose the causes and contribution rates of carbon dioxide changes in China’s energy sources, it provides historical experience and deficiencies for China’s future emission reduction actions. It is believed that the expansion of economic scale is the main reason for the increase of the total energy carbon dioxide in China, the structural factors have little influence on the total energy carbon dioxide, and the reduction of the industry’s complete carbon emission coefficient is the main reason for the decline of the total energy carbon dioxide., indicating that technological progress is one of the important ways to reduce carbon emissions in the future
(2) The causes of regional differences in the total amount of energy and carbon dioxide are studied through the panel model, which lays the foundation for a differentiated regional distribution scheme. It is believed that regional GDP, per capita GDP, proportion of high carbon emission industries, population size, urban population proportion, energy productivity, coal consumption proportion and total factor productivity have different degrees of influence on the total energy carbon dioxide in each province and city, resulting in differences in carbon dioxide emissions from energy sources in different regions.
(3) From the perspective of inter-provincial trade and international trade of each province and city, the carbon dioxide emissions from energy embodied in trade were calculated, and used the influence of the proportion of high-carbon emission industries in the region on the inter-provincial net carbon transfer to predict the percentage change of the net carbon transfer in each region, laying a foundation for the fairness adjustment of regional carbon transfer in the regional distribution of energy carbon dioxide.
(4) Combining the factors that cause regional energy carbon dioxide emissions differences and regional carbon transfer, from the perspective of final demand, using a combination of input-output and econometric models, the national energy carbon dioxide total target is allocated regionally, fully considering the fairness of consumption demand, the fairness of economic development needs, the fairness of carbon transfer and the efficiency of energy productivity.
Main innovations
(1) The article on this site explores a reasonable way of regional decomposition of the national energy carbon dioxide total control target from the perspective of final demand. This distribution method fully considers the fairness of consumer demand, the fairness of economic development needs, the fairness of carbon transfer between regions, and the efficiency of energy productivity, and solves the current problem of regional decomposition of carbon emission targets. In addition, the regional distribution mechanism established by the article on this site combines the input-output method and the econometric model organically, and solves the problem of regional decomposition of the total carbon emission target in the future using the existing data.
(2) The article on this site combines the factor allocation analysis method and the input-output method to decompose the influencing factors of China’s energy carbon emissions, measured the influence of various factors quantitatively, demonstrated China’s historical experience and weak links in controlling energy carbon emissions, and reached meaningful conclusions. Specifically revealed: the expansion of the final demand scale is the main factor leading to the increase of China’s total energy carbon emissions, and the investment scale has the most prominent impact on China’s energy carbon emissions; at present, China’s net exports have not expanded carbon emissions, and even suppressed the growth of energy carbon emissions, but it should be noted that changes in the structure of net exports have a tendency to expand carbon emissions; the change of the industry’s complete carbon emission coefficient has an effective inhibitory effect on the total carbon emission of energy. Technological progress and adjustment of demand structure are the most important ways to control carbon emission in the future.
(3) The article on this site explores a way to calculate the embodied energy carbon transfer in inter-provincial trade based on China’s regional expansion input-output table. In particular, the amount of energy carbon emission transfer implicit in inter-provincial trade and international trade in each region was specifically measured, which created conditions for the reasonable regional decomposition of China’s total energy carbon emission control target.