Comments on carbon emission measurement methods
Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages and scope of application. Due to the fixed consumption coefficient of the input-output model, it is difficult to consider the impact of future technological changes, and it is only more accurate in the current research on carbon emissions. And the input-output table can only be compiled once every five years, which is not convenient to form a continuous time series. However, input-output analysis absorbs the interdependence of economic activities from general equilibrium theory, and reflects the interlocking relationship between various industries and sectors through intermediate inputs, so as to more accurately grasp the total direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions in the entire production process of each industry, and also analyze the impact of changes in the industry structure. Therefore, the input-output method has an irreplaceable role in the research of industrial carbon emissions. Econometric models can comprehensively consider various factors that affect carbon emissions, and are widely used in the prediction of carbon emissions, but the models generally predict the development and changes of economic variables through the past statistical relationship between economic variables. If the economic system has large changes in the future, the model calculation will be inaccurate. The main flaw of the bottom-up approach is that it tries to simulate the actual decision-making behavior as objectively as possible by considering the minimization of the “net cost” of economic agents, and the real decision-making behavior is not completely determined by “cost” minimization, but also other factors such as convenience.
Comments on carbon emission control methods
Carbon intensity control does not necessarily reduce total carbon emissions. When economic growth is faster than the growth of total carbon emissions, even if carbon intensity is reduced, total carbon emissions will still increase. That is to say, carbon intensity control does not fundamentally reduce carbon emissions, but is only a compromise solution to ensure economic growth. The starting point of the total carbon control method is carbon emission reduction, which can truly reduce the total carbon emission. However, the cause of carbon emissions is the large-scale use of fossil energy, and fossil energy, as the energy with the highest proportion and the cheapest acquisition cost, occupies a high proportion in the energy consumption structure of all countries in the world. With the progress of economy and society, the use of fossil energy will further increase, which will also lead to an increase in total carbon emissions. It can be seen that there is a certain degree of contradiction between the goal of total carbon emission control and the goal of rapid economic growth. The economy is an important manifestation of a country’s comprehensive national strength, and no country is willing to sacrifice its economic growth rate to reduce carbon emissions, so the goal of total carbon emissions control is more difficult to implement. The carbon intensity control target allows the total carbon emission to rise with economic growth, but it needs to be gradually moderated by technological progress and the improvement of energy efficiency. This approach gives the country more room for development and is easily accepted by everyone.